Gentle Bayesian updating

This talk is a friendly introduction to the formal model of learning from new evidence (also known as "Bayesian updating"). The Bayesian rule for updating is the most general account of how evidence works, encompassing and explaining the (limited) usefulness of statistical ideas like p-values and confidence intervals. This talk will show you how to do Bayesian updating in your head, using a simple formulation equivalent to the more unwieldy equation (Bayes' theorem).